624
FXHW60 PHFO 300118
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
318 PM HST THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRADES INCREASE FRIDAY AND THEN VEER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
MORE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. BREEZY TRADES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
RIDING ON THE TRADES WITH MOST PLACES SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WITH TRADES ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE SOME SEA BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON WESTERN TERRAINS SHELTERED AREAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER
LOW WILL BE FORMING TO THE WEST. WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS, AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH, COMBINED WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED LOWS, EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THE TRADES FOR FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE WEEKEND TRADES WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS COULD BRING SOME
HAZY CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE DUE TO
VOG-VOLCANIC SMOG.
FOR NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS TO BLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, FAVORING THE WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SLOPES.
AVIATION
AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SW BIG ISLAND DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS ONSHORE SEABREEZES HAVE
KICKED IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS LAND BREEZES TAKE OVER AND PUSH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TRADE WIND
PATTERN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIMITED SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MARINE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW, WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS NEAR MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS
TO TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER UPTICK TO THE WINDS, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE THE SCA TO BE EXPANDED TO ADDITIONAL COASTAL WATERS.
THE CURRENT LONG-PERIOD SOUT-SOUTHWEST SWELL SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
FRIDAY AT NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS, AND THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A
MIX OF LONG- PERIOD BACKGROUND SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AND SHORTER-
PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL.
OVERLAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN SURF ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES AT AVERAGE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND
SWELL WILL DRIVE HEIGHTS ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY. SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO SEASONAL LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS RETURN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...M BALLARD
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