204
FXHW60 PHFO 030106
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
306 PM HST MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI TONIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS DIMINISH. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KAUAI
AND LEEWARD OAHU THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO FOCUS MODEST SHOWERS ON WINDWARD SLOPES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS DECREASE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A HUMID EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE DRIER
AND MORE STABLE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THE FLOW IS VEERED ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF KAUAI. DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE
LOWER 70S ON MUCH OF KAUAI AND OAHU, LEADING TO A HUMID FEEL AND
SUPPORTING SPORADIC BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER BOTH WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD AREAS OF KAUAI AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON OAHU THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND, STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST IS DRIVING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A LOW AND STRONG INVERSION
OVER THESE ISLANDS, AND A DRIER AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IS GENERATING MODEST RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD AREAS
AND SHELTERED LEEWARD TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO SEND AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNING.
A SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AND BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW WITH DIMINISHED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD TO OAHU AND KAUAI TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD. DEW POINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S, REDUCING HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS ON ALL ISLANDS WILL BE LIMITED AND FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AREAS, AND ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE
KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND, LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
SOME CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKENED VERSION
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWING OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AND MAY PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY, MAINLY WINDWARD. TRADES WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY
THURSDAY BUT DROP A NOTCH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENED.
FOR THE WEEKEND, LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH STABLE AND
SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
BACKGROUND FLOW THAT THE STATE HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS EXPANDS WESTWARD. THEREFORE, FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
EXPECT A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL, AND DRIER, EASTERLY TRADE WIND
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS
THAT PASS THROUGH. SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE KONA SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AS WELL AS TROUGHING TO OUR WEST MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
STATE.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
MORE OF A USUAL EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS MOVES WEST. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE IN STRENGTH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WINDS COULD THEN WEAKEN
FURTHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR WINDS OVER THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS IN ADDITION
TO THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SCA WILL THEN
SHRINK IN COVERAGE AND BE IN EFFECT ONLY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI AND BIG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW, KEEPING SURF
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE FLAT TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH NORTH AND
WEST- FACING SHORE SURF DROPPING TO NEAR JUNE AVERAGES BY
WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
MIX OF SMALL BACKGROUND SWELL TODAY AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
SMALL SOUTHWEST SWELLS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER,
LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (10
FOOT) SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
EAST-FACING SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN CHOPPY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND COULD SEE A MODERATE MEDIUM
PERIOD SWELL AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...TSAMOUS
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