546
FXHW60 PHFO 011317
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 AM HST TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS JUST TO THE NORTH. AS THIS TROUGH EXITS THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE, BACKING TRADES TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
AND INCREASING TO A MORE MODERATE TO BREEZY RANGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TRADES COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THAT HAS
DETERIORATED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AGAIN TODAY, TRIGGERING POSSIBLE LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREA SHOWERS, BUT WILL BE FAR LESS ENERGIZED IN
COMPARISON TO EARLIER THIS WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE VICINITY TO THE WEST. THEREAFTER, THE SURFACE HIGH WELL
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL REBUILD, ALLOWING TRADES TO
GRADUALLY BACK OUT OF THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
TO LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO ENSUE AS DRIER
AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS. DESPITE
THIS, TYPICAL TRADE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, BUT AT MODEST LEVELS GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND EURO REMAINS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER,
BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALIZED STRONG AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CONJUNCTION OF DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THESE STRONGER
TRADES COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS LEADING UP TO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LIGHT TRADES WILL PREVAIL, HOWEVER, AS A DIFFUSED SURFACE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION TO THE WEST, THE TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
AND GRADUALLY BACK OUT OF THE EAST. SOME LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SEA
BREEZE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT WILL LIKELY
BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP GENTLE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
BY SATURDAY, INCREASING TRADE WINDS INTO THE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG RANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES (SCA) CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS FOR WIND OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL HOLD AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SMALLER LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, KEEPING SURF
HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FAIRLY STEADY. SURF HEIGHTS ALONG
E SHORES MATCHES TRADE WIND TRENDS, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING SMALL
THIS WEEK THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. SURF HEIGHTS
ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL SEE SOME SOUTH SWELL WRAP, WITH
NORTH FACING SHORES REMAINING NEARLY FLAT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...BOHLIN
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