190
FXHW60 PHFO 020136
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
336 PM HST TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT
WEDNESDAY STRENGTHENING THE TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY INCOMING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD AREAS AT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST AROUND THE STATE WITH CLOUDS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCOMING BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI OVERNIGHT, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY STRENGTHENING THE TRADES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO BLOW IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES.
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BECOMING
BREEZY TO LOCALIZED STRONG AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CONJUNCTION OF DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THESE STRONGER TRADES COULD
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT, CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, BUT SOME SEA BREEZE
CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
UNDER PASSING SHOWERS.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NONE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FAR NORTH OF THE STATE AS THE
WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE DISSIPATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG TRADE WINDS
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL PEAKED EARLIER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD STILL
HOLD NEAR THE SUMMER TIME AVERAGE (5 FEET) TILL AROUND THURSDAY
BEFORE DROPPING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES, SURF WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONG TRADES. AN INCREASE OF ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADE WINDS
STRENGTHEN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...AHUE
MARINE...KINO
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