881
FXHW60 PHFO 030134
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
334 PM HST WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
THEN STRENGTHEN TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES. AN INCOMING BATCH
OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THIS EVENING,
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PASSING SHOWERS UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS.
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND, BECOMING BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER TRADES
COULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. TRADE WIND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL
TREND OF WETTER AT NIGHT AND DRIER DURING THE DAY, AND BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD OCCASIONALLY SPILL OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS, AND ANY SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME OR EARLY MORNING COULD HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE HOWEVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS COULD RECEIVE MORE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, AND THERE IS GOOD A CHANCE OF AIRMET TANGO
TOMORROW FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THE TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG TRADE WINDS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD STILL HOLD NEAR THE SUMMER TIME
AVERAGE (5 FEET) TILL AROUND THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. TINY, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL HOLD INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW AVERAGE SURF EXPECTED.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES, SURF WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SMALLER
THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG TRADES. AN INCREASE OF
ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...TS
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