509
FXHW60 PHFO 031345
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN BETTER ESTABLISHED TRADE
WINDS. BREEZY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO LOCALLY WINDY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THICKER CLOUDS AND HIGHER SHOWER FREQUENCY REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND UPSLOPE MAUKA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
A NEAR 1030 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE A LITTLE OVER A THOUSAND MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE ENOUGH ACROSS THE STATE TO
PRODUCE AND MAINTAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING POCKET
OF MOISTURE PASSES BY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, THERE WILL
BE MANY DAYS WHERE THE SUPPRESSING MID LEVEL RIDGE TAKES OVER,
ROOTING ITSELF OVER AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE. A MORE
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS DUE TO UPSLOPE FORCING BROUGHT ABOUT BY
ENHANCED TRADES. TRADES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY MENTIONABLE LOCAL SCALE BREEZE BEHAVIOR. SUNNIER
SKIES AS A RESULT OF STABLE MID TO UPPER RIDGING PRODUCING A DRIER
(OVERALL) COLUMN WILL STILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER BETTER WIND
PROTECTED AREAS (SUCH AS LEEWARD BIG ISLAND), BUILDING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND INTRODUCING MORE FREQUENT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE COMBINATION OF DRIER CONDITIONS WITHIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE FLOW WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
EACH SUBSEQUENT MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
MANY WINDWARD AREAS ARE ABNORMALLY DRY WITH LEEWARD REGIONS
FALLING UNDER MORE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW BUT, IF THE STATE DOES EXPERIENCE A NEAR TERM PERIOD OF LOW
TO NIL RAIN, THE MAIN TOPIC OF CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
CENTERED AROUND GREATER WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CIGS AND SHRA SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SLOPES. WE COULD SEE SOME ISO SHOWERS SPILL OVER INTO
LEEWARD AREAS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET TANGO IS NOT IN EFFECT BUT MAY BE NEED FOR MOD TURB DUE TO
THE TRADES LATER TODAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG TRADE WINDS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND STARTING AT 6 AM TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD STILL HOLD NEAR THE SUMMER TIME
AVERAGES BEFORE DROPPING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TINY, LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE SURF EXPECTED.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES, AN INCREASE OF ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADE WINDS
STRENGTHEN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...WALSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page