975
FXHW60 PHFO 070112
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
312 PM HST SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH STABILITY PREVAILS AS A STRONG INVERSION REMAINS ESTABLISHED
AROUND 6.5KFT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS HAVE SEEN THE
EXPANSION OF STABLE LOW CLOUDS AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT LIGHT IN INTENSITY
COURTESY OF STRONG CAPPING. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
AS THE TYPICAL WINDIER LOCALES WITHIN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
HAVE PERFORMED TO EXPECTATIONS TODAY. EXPECT THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO
FEATURE MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-CRITERIA WINDS IN THESE AREAS AS
THE GRADIENT FURTHER STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION, WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE MID-LEVEL TRADES LIKELY WARRANTING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. THE
INVERSION THEN LIFTS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF
DEEPER TRADE WIND MOISTURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA ZONES.
COMBINED WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING OF GOVERNING HIGH PRESSURE, THIS WILL
HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AS THEY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
STABLE AND WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AS STRONG TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6
PM HST MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME ZONES AS THE GUSTY TRADES PERSIST. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE
TYPICAL WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SOUTH SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECLINE AS A SOUTH SWELL
FADES THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL
MAY BOOST SOUTH-FACING SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR SUMMERTIME
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT WILL THEN DECLINE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS TRADES FURTHER STRENGTHEN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
INVERSION WILL HOLD AROUND 6.5KFT AS THE RESIDENT AIRMASS TRENDS
SLIGHTLY DRIER. THE KBDI WILL REMAIN A TOUCH BELOW CRITERIA (600)
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME LIMITING THE LIKLIHOOD OF FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-MOLOKAI-LANAI
WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
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