966
FXHW60 PHFO 071311
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 AM HST MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WINDIER AREAS
OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE
WITH THESE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE STATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. A STABLE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ONLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LEEWARD
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE TWO MAIN WEATHER STORIES THIS WEEK WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS AND THE DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS SHOWS STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RIDING IN ON THE
TRADE WINDS. THE LOW TOPS OF THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY PRODUCE BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS AS THEY ARE DRIVEN UP THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES
OF EACH ISLAND IN THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 6,000 TO 7,000 FEET TODAY, DROPPING INTO
THE 5,000 TO 6,000 FOOT RANGE ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS OBSERVATIONS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON VERIFIED WITH OUR LOW END WIND ADVISORY FORECAST.
SEVERAL AREAS OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH OVER THE WINDIER AREAS OF MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND. WIND SPEED TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATER TODAY. WIND OBSERVATIONS ON KAUAI AND OAHU SHOWED LOWER
SPEEDS, BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR WINDIER AREAS OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES
WAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND
MAUNA LOA, AND ALSO EXTENDED IN TIME FOR 24 HOURS NOW LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY PEAK LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND FOR MOST AREAS
ON TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING MORE MODERATE WIND SPEED RANGES BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ALONG WITH STABLE AND DRY MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AVIATION
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AS STRONG TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6PM
TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AT LEAST
SOME ZONES AS THE GUSTY TRADES PERSIST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE TYPICAL
WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS.
SOUTH SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECLINE AS A SOUTH SWELL
FADES THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL
MAY BOOST SOUTH-FACING SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR SUMMERTIME
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT WILL THEN DECLINE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT LOWER
LEEWARD ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 45 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE INVERSION DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 5,000 FEET
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER DRY
LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES, THOUGH NO HEADLINES (WATCHES OR WARNINGS)
ARE DUE SINCE THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE 600 THRESHOLD AT HONOLULU.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...WALSH
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
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