651
FXHW60 PHFO 080147
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THESE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL EASE STARTING WEDNESDAY, WITH A RIDGE ALOFT CONFINING
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND HELP DRIVE
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES THROUGH TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE STATE, MAINTAINING
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS LOWERING THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION LEEWARD COMMUNITIES. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM HST TOMORROW. THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND
MAUNA LOA HAVE ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WIND ADVISORY AS A MID
LEVEL EASTERLY JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON'S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE TRADES.
UPSTREAM MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE, WITH SOME DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO
FILTER OVER ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO EASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT,
AND COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING
OF THE INVERSION, THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN
ON THE TRADES, BRINGING PERIODIC UPTICKS IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER COVERAGE.
AVIATION
STRONG STABILITY FAVORS VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITION WINDWARD AND MAUKA. STRONG TRADES
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LEE TURB REMAINS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM
HST TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WINDIER CHANNELS AND
WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THEREFORE, THE SCA WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS MAY
ALSO APPROACH 10 FEET AT TIMES IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTH SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECLINE AS THE CURRENT
SMALL SOUTH SWELL FADES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT SMALL,
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING AND
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL MAY BOOST SOUTH-FACING SHORE SURF
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY EASING AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
ANOTHER, SMALLER LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT COULD ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
AS THE TRADES EASE A BIT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK,
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL ALSO TREND DOWN.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WITH STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT LOWER LEEWARD ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 45
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE INVERSION DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS 5,000 FEET, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER DRY LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES, THOUGH NO HEADLINES
(WATCHES OR WARNINGS) ARE DUE SINCE THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
WILL REMAIN BELOW THE 600 THRESHOLD AT HONOLULU.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...FARRIS
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