815
FXHW60 PHFO 140114
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
314 PM HST SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITS AROUND 500 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI WITH RIDGING ALOFT ELSEWHERE, RESULTING IN A STRONG INVERSION
AROUND 5800 FEET ON THE MORNING HILO SOUNDING AND A HIGHER AND WEAKER
ONE FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN (LIHUE). DESPITE THE SLIGHT
INSTABILITY NEAR KAUAI, A POCKET OF DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY, PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE INCREASED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STABLE CUMULUS AND MINIMAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD
AREAS AND OVER LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND ON TODAY'S VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREAD INTO
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT, THEN REACH OAHU AND KAUAI BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY POSITIONED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE, RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTH BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FILL IN OVER HAWAII.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF TYPICALLY DRIER AND STABLE
SUMMER WEATHER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUBDUED. A MODEST BUMP IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADES. SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE ISLANDS,
BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, AND NONE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE HAS RELAXED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOME AND IS CAUSING
THE TRADE WINDS TO BE AT SPEEDS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVELS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY THEN STRENGTHEN TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. SCA SHOULD RETURN
TO OUR TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES SHOULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A PAIR OF SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
SWELLS. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL SHOULD FILL IN ON MONDAY AND
PEAK ON TUESDAY NEAR THE SUMMER AVERAGE. AS THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL BEGINS TO DECLINE, THERE SHOULD BE SOME REINFORCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN SURF HEIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURF SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECLINE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER MODEST
INCREASE IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A NEW LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE TASMAN SEA.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CHOPPY WITH
SURF HEIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG TRADES
LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. A SIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE TRADES STRENGTHEN A NOTCH. A
TINY NORTHWEST SWELL COULD PRODUCE SOME RIDEABLE SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH TYPICAL SUMMER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...TS
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...KINO
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