289
WTPA43 PHFO 112043
TCDCP3
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2025
HENRIETTE NOW HAS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH A DIMPLE
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE A SMALL EYE COULD BE
ATTEMPTING TO FORM, SURROUNDED BY A LONG SPIRAL BAND. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL
ASSUMED TO BE AROUND 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCHANGED--NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/16 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS, WITH
HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A LARGE RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNITED STATES.
THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 60 HOURS, RELATED TO WHETHER
OR NOT HENRIETTE GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (AND TURNS EASTWARD, AS IN THE GFS) OR GETS LEFT
BEHIND AND CONTINUES NORTHWARD (AS IN THE ECWMF). THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST, LEANING TOWARD THE NEW CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THAT POTENTIAL. BY 24 HOURS,
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, INCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE
WEAKENING. HENRIETTE COULD LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, AND
THUS BECOME POST-TROPICAL, IN ABOUT 60 HOURS, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
LIKELY DISSIPATING BY DAY 5 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 29.8N 157.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 31.4N 159.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 162.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 35.2N 164.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 37.3N 167.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 39.4N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/1800Z 41.4N 170.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z 43.8N 169.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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