420
WTPA43 PHFO 120248
TCDCP3
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS DEGRADED A
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER HAS
DISAPPEARED, AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 70 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AN ASCAT PASS
SHORTLY AFTER 20Z CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS
VERY COMPACT, WITH ITS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER.
HENRIETTE IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IN FACT, THE WEAKENING
TREND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE FAST AS THE
SMALL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW HENRIETTE
BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 TO 60 HOURS AND DISSIPATING
ENTIRELY IN ABOUT 4 DAYS, AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 30.8N 159.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 32.3N 160.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 34.2N 163.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 35.9N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 38.0N 168.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 40.1N 170.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 41.9N 170.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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