879
WTPA43 PHFO 120844
TCDCP3
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2025
HENRIETTE'S INNER CORE HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM THE SPACE OPERATIONS COMMAND
(SPOC) WSF-M1 AND AN ISS TEMPEST-D CUBESAT IMAGER REVEALED A
COLLAPSED, PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE AND
FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS.
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (17TH OWS), PHFO, AND SAB,
A 0710 UTC SATCON ANALYSIS OF 64 KT AND A BLEND OF THE UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY TECHNIQUES YIELD A LOWERED INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KT.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS INHIBITING
DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SHOULD CAUSE
HENRIETTE TO WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PREDICT THAT HENRIETTE
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY EARLY THURSDAY
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BY THE
WEEKEND. ACCORDINGLY, QUICK WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST AND RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LGEM AND JUST ABOVE THE HCCA AND IVCN CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/14 KT.
HENRIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO HENRIETTE'S NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTERWARD, A
WEAKENED, VERTICALLY SHALLOW HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN TO THE NORTH WHILE ROUNDING THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 160.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 161.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 35.0N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 37.0N 166.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 39.2N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/1800Z 41.3N 169.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 43.2N 169.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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