433
WTPA43 PHFO 121445
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE AUG 12 2025
THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HENRIETTE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SMALL INNER CORE OF
THE CYCLONE. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE EYE HAD
BECOME LESS DISTINCT, AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE. A BLEND OF
DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF SSTS OF 26-27 DEGREES C AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
FASTER RATE OF DEMISE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DECOUPLING IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE
UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
36 HOURS, BUT THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AID, WHICH
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS THAT INDICATES AN
EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/15 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED
MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL LOW IT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 32.8N 161.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 163.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 36.2N 166.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 38.3N 168.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/1200Z 40.7N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z 42.7N 169.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN/E. ADAMS
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