303
WTPA43 PHFO 122033
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 12 2025
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. A MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1740 UTC SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL OPEN TO THE WEST. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED THIS CYCLE AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 26
DEGREES C WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THE ONGOING MODERATE WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LIKELY FORCE ADDITIONAL NEARBY DRY AIR INTO
THE STORM'S CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT HENRIETTE WILL
LOSE ALL DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/15 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM IS STEERED
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 34.1N 162.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.7N 164.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 37.7N 167.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 39.9N 169.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z 42.0N 169.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0600Z 44.0N 169.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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