723
FXHW60 PHFO 230146
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF RAINFALL STATIONS SHOWING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW A TYPICAL DRY SUMMERTIME
SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND A
STRONG INVERSION STARTING AT AROUND 5500 FEET.
FOR SATURDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS. STARTING SUNDAY, A
TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WINDS TO DECREASE
AND VEER TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BESIDES THE
WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING A TOUCH ON
SUNDAY, THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH THE WINDS WEAKENING SOME, WE
COULD SEE MORE AREAS WITH SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER FOR SELECT
LEEWARD AREAS.
BY TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE STATE AND A NEW HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF OUR TYPICAL BREEZY TRADE WINDS. AS
OUR BREEZY TRADE WINDS RETURN, WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
SOME WINDWARD SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY
OVER THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MAINTAINS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE WINDIER
WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SMALL OVERLAPPING MEDIUM AND LONG PERIOD S (170-190
DEGREE) SWELLS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MAINTAINING SURF NEAR
THE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE ALONG S SHORES. SURF THEN DIMINISHES TO
BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWELL ENERGY FADES. ANOTHER
SMALL, LONG PERIOD S SWELL ARRIVES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT PERIOD CHOP CONTINUES FOR E FACING SHORES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT FRESH TRADES. SURF ALONG N
FACING SHORES REMAINS NEARLY FLAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. WHILE WE DID SEE SELECT AREAS WITH
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO THE MID 30'S TO LOW 40'S THIS AFTERNOON, WIND
SPEEDS STAYED AT MODERATE SPEEDS THUS BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A TOUCH ON SATURDAY, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST. ONCE AGAIN WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS JUST
BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS EXPECTED. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN
INVERSION BETWEEN 5,000 AND 6,500 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT INCREASE BACK TO OUR TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY SPEEDS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...DT/FARRIS
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...KINO
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