776
FXHW60 PHFO 070200
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING BAND OF MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE STATE NEXT
WEEK TO DECREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TO HAWAII.
HOWEVER, LIFE-THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STATEWIDE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS REMAINS DISRUPTED BY A
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH, MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP, PRODUCING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS FILTERING IN
ABOVE THE TRADE WIND INVERSION.
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHTER TRADES, TOGETHER WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW, WILL BRING A MODEST
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS OVERNIGHT, WHILE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY TRIGGER
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A NARROW DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY, BRIEFLY
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND PROVIDING A DRIER FEEL WITH
MODERATE TRADES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KIKO
(EXTENDING FAR FROM ITS CENTER) WILL REACH THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS KIKO BEGINS TO PASS NORTH OF THE
STATE.
AS OF 330 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON, HURRICANE KIKO WAS A CATEGORY 4
SYSTEM LOCATED A LITTLE LESS THAN 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. KIKO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND PASSES NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARDS TO TRACK AND INTENSITY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THAT
THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR HAWAII ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARINE-RELATED, WITH LARGE AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. IN ADDITION, THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS KIKO PASSES TO THE NORTH, COMBINED WITH WEAKER WINDS
OVER THE AREA AS THE TRADES ARE BLOCKED MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A WINDWARD FOCUS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS TOMORROW
AND MODESTLY INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO WILL THEN APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN NEXT
WEEK AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING A PASSAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY DEVIATION
SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN IMPACTS TO THE STATE. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND DETAILS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE KIKO HAS TRENDED NORTH AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS, DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SWELL
GENERATED BY KIKO WILL ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY, PEAKING
AT OR NEAR HIGH SURF WARNING LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY IS CAUSING THE
TRADE WINDS TO EASE TO THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE WEST
MONDAY, MODERATE TRADE WINDS MAY MAKE A BRIEF RETURN.
HURRICANE KIKO, APPROXIMATELY 775 NM ESE OF HILO, CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST NORTHWEST IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS KIKO ENTERING OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
THE LAST FEW FORECAST TRACKS FOR KIKO HAVE TRENDED NORTH, TAKING
THE TRACK FURTHER FROM THE COASTAL WATERS, AND LOWERING THE
PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FORECAST TRACK UPDATES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL STEADILY RISE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWELL ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
KIKO ARRIVES. THE SURF MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH LOW END HIGH SURF WARNING
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DURING ITS PEAK. SURF HEIGHTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF KIKO AS IT
NEARS THE STATE.
A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
HELPING TO BUILD SURF ABOVE THE SUMMER AVERAGE. AS THIS SWELL
DECLINES ON MONDAY, ANOTHER REINFORCING SWELL OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SURF
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUMMER AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE SMALL PULES OF NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY
WILL GENERATE SMALL SURF ALONG NORTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES, COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PREDICTED, MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
SHORELINE AND IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
WITH LIGHT BREEZES FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AND BRIEFLY LOWER HUMIDITIES, BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER MANY WINDWARD EXPOSURES
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF TC KIKO NORTH OF THE STATE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...M BALLARD
FIRE WEATHER...FARRIS
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