065
FXHW60 PHFO 111352
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 AM HST THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AGAIN NOW THAT KIKO HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. LIMITED SHOWERS WITHIN THE TRADES WILL FOCUS ALONG
WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THEN MOST LIKELY REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING SHOW THE
LOCATION OF AN INCOMING EASTERLY WAVE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL TOTALS YESTERDAY WERE OVER AN INCH ON THE WINDWARD WIDE
OF OAHU, KAUAI, AND THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO, A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KAHULUI, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET OVER 40 YEARS AGO IN 1984.
THIS MORNING'S LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND
5,500 FT. INVERSION HEIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND IS CLOSER TO 10,000
FT. TRADES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN FOR THE COMING
WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE
ENTIRE STATE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE PERIODS OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE WILL SEE INCREASES IN THE NUMBER AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS
AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THESE PASSING WAVES.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE'LL SEE RATHER TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
AVIATION
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO ISLAND MOUNTAINS ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AIRFIELDS.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. POSSIBLE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVER SELECT WINDWARD AREAS.
MARINE
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO IS EXITING THE FAR
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SEABREEZES OVER THE
LEEWARD WATERS. TRADE WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
BEFORE EASING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FILLS IN FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY
DECLINES OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY AS THE SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS FILLED IN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TINY TO SMALL
NORTHWEST PULSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING SURF GOING
FLAT. EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE TYPICAL TRADE WIND GENERATED
ENERGY TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LARGEST SURF EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE COMING
WEEK, THE RETURN OF LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL LOWER HUMIDITY TO
TYPICAL VALUES. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE COMMON IN THE EAST TODAY,
WITH A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AND
FOCUSED WINDWARD AND MAUKA.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...PARKER/BLOOD
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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