132
FXHW60 PHFO 120138
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
338 PM HST THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
SOME WINDWARD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED
FRIDAY TO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOW THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT TRACKED ACROSS WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT UPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN FROM
UPSTREAM KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALONG
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE, BUT NOT AMOUNTING TO
MUCH ACCUMULATION. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST IS
PUSHING IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
KEEPING A FAIRLY WEAK AND ELEVATED INVERSION OVER THE STATE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST, WHILE THE REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES TO THE WEST. EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE
GETTING CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND PUSHED ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN
PLACE. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL AS
THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
OVER SELECT WINDWARD AREAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ALSO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AIRMET TANGO IF WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AS THE REMNANTS OF POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO EXIT THE REGION, GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM TONIGHT ONWARD TO BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY CHANNELS AND WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL SLOWLY DECLINING TODAY, ANOTHER
SMALL, MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL FILL IN ON FRIDAY TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER SLIGHT BUMP IN SOUTH SHORE SURF. THIS SWELL WILL
THEN THEN SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST PULSE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE TYPICAL TRADE WIND GENERATED
ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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