332
FXHW60 PHFO 130250
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
450 PM HST FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH DRY AND STABLE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH DRY AND STABLE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
LEEWARD KAUAI AS THE LAST BIT OF MOISTURE THAT MOVED IN YESTERDAY
CLEARS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE STATE AROUND
THE SAME TIME MAY ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWERS MOVING IN ON BOTH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOCUSING
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE. SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL AS THE NIGHT TIME
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
OVER SELECT WINDWARD AREAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FAR NORTHEAST OF STATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY CHANNELS AND WATERS OF MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN STRENGTHEN
BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT
SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT A SMALLER LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL SOUTH SHORE SURF INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES.
WEBCAMS TODAY HAVE SHOWN SETS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE SLIGHTLY
OUTPERFORMED IN SOME SPOTS WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. AS A RESULT, SURF HEIGHTS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS THIS
SWELL WANES. ANOTHER SHORT- TO MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST
REINFORCEMENT COULD CAUSE A SLIGHT BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH FACING
SHORES ON SUNDAY, THEN DECLINE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE TYPICAL TRADE WIND GENERATED ENERGY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND SHOWER TRENDS FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL RANGE FROM 5,500 TO 6,500 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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