994
FXHW60 PHFO 021751 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
751 AM HST THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC, ALLOWING LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES MAY
BUILD BACK THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW HIGH BUILDS
NORTH OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN
STABLE WITH A 7 TO 8 KFT INVERSION ACROSS THE STATE. INFRARED
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING IN
A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY
IMPACTING WINDWARD SLOPES. MOST SHOWERS ARE PASSING NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LIKELY FROM DOWNSTREAM PARTIAL BLOCKAGE FROM
THE BIG ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING,
WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL FOR LEEWARD
LOCATIONS.
THE LIGHT WIND FLOW AND BIG ISLAND BLOCKAGE WILL ALLOW LOCALIZED
SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. LAND BREEZES WILL CLEAR OUT THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A DIURNAL REPEAT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEEWARD SIDES OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS
COULD PRODUCE PLUMES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND WEST TO
NORTHWEST FROM EACH ISLAND, AND COULD ANCHOR SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AND SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT TIMES OVERRIDING
THE LAND BREEZE SUPPRESSION.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY TRADES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW HIGH DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND AND SHOWER REGIMES NEAR
THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
AN ESE TRADEWIND REGIME WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TODAY'S TRADE WIND FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS EACH AFTERNOON, BRINGING CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD OAHU FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS, BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA COULD BE ISSUED FOR OTHER ISLANDS
AS SHOWERS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH PASSES FAR
NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE CURRENT GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL VEER EAST SOUTHEAST AND TREND LIGHTER THROUGH SATURDAY
GIVING WAY TO LOCALIZED LAND AND SEABREEZES OVER LEEWARD WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (300 DEG) SWELL FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEOGURI HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN EARLY THIS MORNING,
WILL PEAK LATER TODAY BEFORE DECLINING THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODERATE,
MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST (330 DEG) SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
CURRENT LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN ON SATURDAY, PEAK SUNDAY JUST BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) CRITERIA FOR NORTH FACING SHORES, AND SLOWLY FADE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
THE NORTHWEST (320 DEG) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN MONDAY, PEAK
TUESDAY AND DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHWEST (210 DEG) SWELL HAS
FILLED IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL PEAK TODAY, BEFORE FADING FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST (210 DEG) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
RISE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DECLINING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SURF ALONG EAST- FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
STATE WILL RANGE FROM 7,000 TO 8,500 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...TROTTER/FARRIS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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