261
FXHW60 PHFO 040102
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
302 PM HST FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC, ALLOWING LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES TO CONTINUE. MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NEW HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND
WILL NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY PASSING BY THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE, BUT OCCASIONALLY
IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. TRADES ARE SLOWLY VEERING
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME CLOUDS BUILDING ACROSS SOME ISLAND INTERIORS.
WITH THE VEERING TRADES EXPECT LAND BREEZES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES EASTERLY TRADES WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A NEW SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FOCUS BACK TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE AROUND MONDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
AGAIN TAPER OFF AND PUT US IN A LAND AND SEA BREEZE REGIME, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.
AVIATION
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS WERE FOCUSED
LEEWARD THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL TONIGHT AND MAINLY IN WINDWARD
AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES NEAR SHOWERS. NO AIRMET CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE CLOUD BUILD-UPS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SWITCH FOCUS FROM LEEWARD TO WINDWARD AREAS,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM PLUMES DOWNWIND OF
MOUNTAINS.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN FULLY SATURDAY, REDUCING
OR ELIMINATING LAND BREEZES AND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AREAS COMPARED TO TODAY. LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY
THAN TODAY.
MARINE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE FRONT AND
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST
NORTHEAST TRADES BUILD IN AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAKENING WINDS TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST (310-320 DEG) SWELL
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NEOGURI WILL DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST (330 DEG) SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE CURRENT LOW LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON SATURDAY, PEAK SUNDAY JUST
BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CRITERIA FOR NORTH FACING SHORES,
AND SLOWLY FADE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST (320 DEG) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
MONDAY, PEAK TUESDAY AND DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST (210 DEG) SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL, LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND BUILD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST (200
DEG) SWELL IS POSSIBLE BY THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SURF ALONG
EAST- FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE A SLIGHT BOOST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES BRIEFLY RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE STATE WILL RANGE FROM 6000 TO 7000 FEET TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...WROE/PARKER
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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