284
FXHW60 PHFO 080415
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
615 PM HST TUE OCT 7 2025
UPDATE
QUICK CLEAN UP OF NEAR TERM EVENING POPS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO
MATCH ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TRADE WINDS BUILDING BACK IN BY SATURDAY.
THAT MEANS SEVERAL DAYS OF SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT, AND MORE LEEWARD SHOWERS THAN USUAL. IN
ADDITION, A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM A DECAYING FRONT
WILL INCREASE SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 PM HST TUE OCT 7 2025/
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SEA BREEZE PATTERN HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAYED A STRONG ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS WERE OVER LANAI AND WINDWARD OAHU AS OF 3:00 PM HST.
HAWAII COUNTY HAD THE FEWEST SHOWERS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SHOULD DIMINISH STATEWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH NOTICEABLE LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING TONIGHT, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS. WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE, WE SHOULD SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY'S SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE COUNTY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW
IS KAUAI, OWING TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A BAND OF MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY, LIMITING THE SEA BREEZE FOR SOME AREAS. THIS,
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT,
SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS STATEWIDE.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CERTAINLY BY SATURDAY, TRADE WINDS
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RETURN US TO A
MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD/LEEWARD PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS
FOR THOSE DAYS. SLIGHT DRYING APPEARS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
A TROUGH LINGERING JUST NW OF KAUAI WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOCAL LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL GET PUSHED OVER THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES AS WELL AS DEVELOP OVER ISLAND INTERIORS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
SOME HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVING OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHICH AIRPORTS EXACTLY THEY WOULD IMPACT. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS IN PLACE OVER MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI,
OAHU, AND KAUAI DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE...
A TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS FLOW SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE.
BOTH THE MODERATE, SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL AND THE SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH
THE WEEK. DESPITE ANOTHER SMALL, SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE OCTOBER AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEXT, MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATE, LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT, EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BACKGROUND SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL BRING TINY TO SMALL
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A SMALL,
LONG PERIOD, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEG) SWELL WILL FILL IN
THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING A SLIGHT BOOST TO SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES THIS WEEK AS
WEAK FLOW PREVAILS. AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE TRADES RETURN AND A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA IN THE EAST PACIFIC ARRIVES.
PEAK HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SHORELINES AND LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOODING WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE DAILY PEAK TIDE EACH MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BLOOD
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...FARRIS
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