861
FXHW60 PHFO 100146
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO KAUAI THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A LAND AND SEA BREEZES PATTERN TO
DOMINATE WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT TRADES BUILDING THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK WITH A WET AND UNSTABLE
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF HAWAII WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM THE LOW IS LOCATED OVER KAUAI THIS
AFTERNOON AND CHARACTERIZED AS A BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS THAT HAS
BEEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE GARDEN ISLE TODAY. THE REST OF THE
STATE IS IN DIURNAL LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN BRINGING CLEAR
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AND CLOUDY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS
ISLAND INTERIORS.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE NORTH. THE LOW TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY REMAIN A DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK MUCH OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW,
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND NOSING IN SOUTH
OF THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND POSITION ITSELF JUST WEST OF
THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT PUTTING HAWAII IS A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
AND WET WEATHER PATTERN. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS.
AVIATION
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE STRENGTHENING
SLIGHTLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT LAND BREEZES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. SEABREEZES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND MORE SHELTERED
AREAS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR PHLI WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO DECAYING MOIST AXIS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS KAUAI. MOST
SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS, BUT MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR IN
SHOWERS IS TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND KAUAI.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR SE THRU SW SECTIONS OF
KAUAI, ELSEWHERE AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT DUE TO MTN OBSC. THESE
AIRMETS MAY LIKELY BE CANCELLED AS THE MOIST AXIS FURTHER DECAYS
AND SHIFTS NORTH OF KAUAI LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWEST SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL TRANSITION TO GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
A SURFACE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WATERS AND MAY
DISRUPT THE TRADE WINDS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME STRONGER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST MOVING
SOUTH AND CREATING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE NEW
SURFACE TROUGH.
A MIX OF A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALL, SHORT
PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SMALL SURF FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY LARGE MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY NEAR OR ABOVE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EXHIBITED A LOW
BIAS, COMPARED WITH OBSERVED NEARSHORE BUOY READINGS RUNNING
HIGHER THAN FORECAST GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, SURF HEIGHTS MAY COME
IN LARGER THEN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MODEL OUTPUT.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SWELLS. EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY TO SMALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SELECT SHORELINES EXPOSED TO THE
CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL. A SLIGHT UPTICK IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS EASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURN. IN ADDITION, A SMALL,
MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
PRISCILLA IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
PEAK HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SHORELINES AND LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOODING WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE DAILY PEAK TIDE EACH MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WEAK WINDS AND CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 5,000
TO AS HIGH AS 9,000 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...TSAMOUS
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