269
FXHW60 PHFO 131316
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
316 AM HST MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WEAKEN AND
SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH STRONGER TRADES KICKING IN WEDNESDAY INTO LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND WHERE THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET THAT IS MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
(ROUGHLY CENTERED OVERHEAD) BEFORE MOVING TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENING LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALOFT, INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA IS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, BUT WE CAN'T RULE
OUT STORMS IN THE EAST AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE THE SURFACE
WINDS. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY
TRADES WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
USUAL WINDY AREAS.
AVIATION
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZES IS EXPECTED
TODAY. LOW CIGS AND A FEW SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF HAWAII RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL FADE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRADE
WINDS BUILDING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
TRACK OVER THE ISLANDS BEGINNING AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AND WILL PEAK TONIGHT.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF WILL DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH MINOR PULSES OF LONGER PERIODS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. EAST SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLOODING WITHIN LOW LAYING AREAS DURING
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 6,000 TO 7,000 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...FOSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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