365
FXHW60 PHFO 130150
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 PM HST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL PERSIST PREDOMINATELY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. TRADES
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO A MORE MODERATE REGIME BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH WEAKENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS KEEPING BREEZY
TO WINDY TRADES BLOWING ACROSS THE ISLANDS SO THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW WIDESPREAD WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE KOHALA DISTRICT OF THE BIG
ISLAND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGESTING ADVISORY WINDS
MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY BY FRIDAY AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE.
MEANWHILE, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WITH SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS PRODUCING OVER 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CIMSS MIMIC PWATS CONTINUE TO SHOW ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING
SOUTHERLY FLOW PROPAGATE OVER THE ISLANDS, ESCORTING AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS WITH IT AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY
(DAYS 6 AND 7) OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT, WE
COULD SEE AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
ISLANDS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WINS, MOST OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOWER. THE ONE THING BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE IN
COMMON IS THE DEPICTION OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES BEFORE
WE CAN DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, THREATS THERE ARE FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO TOMORROW. LOWER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOICATED WITH THE STRONGER TRADES WILL CAUSE
MVFR AND SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE FOR TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. AIRMET TANGO WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR 30
KT OR GREATER SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN OAHU AND BIG ISLAND.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH, CENTERED ROUGHLY 950 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS, IS DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THE ROBUST EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS, COMBINED WITH BOTH
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS, WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEAS GREATER
THAN 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL, WHERE FLOW
FUNNELING AROUND THE TERRAIN OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL
ACCELERATE TRADES EVEN MORE. ELSEWHERE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY (030 TO 050 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN DECLINE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS LOCAL TRADE WINDS WEAKEN.
MEANWHILE, A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS
PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SWELL ENERGY IS
KEEPING KEEPING SURF ALONG NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES
ELEVATED, BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN DECLINE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL, LONG PERIOD,
NORTHWEST SWELL IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL AGAIN BRING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL BUMP TO SURF ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED EARLIER TODAY AND
GENERATED SURF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NOVEMBER AVERAGE IS NOW
FADING. THEREFORE, EXPECT SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES TO
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE TO BREEZY BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR OLOMANA-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI EAST-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI
WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-BIG
ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG
ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...PECHACEK/FARRIS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...AHUE
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