794
FXHW60 PHFO 131303
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 AM HST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND WILL AID IN MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PERSIST, NAMELY FOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. TRADES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO A MORE MODERATE
REGIME BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH WEAKENING AND PROPAGATING
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A BROAD 1034 MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, STILL MAINTAINING
RELATIVELY BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TODAY
AS THEY WERE THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KOHALA
DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
NOTED SO FAR.
BECAUSE OF THIS, OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY
(0600 PM THURSDAY). MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THEREAFTER, BECOMING A MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
REGIME, AND FALL OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE
ENHANCED SHOWERS PROPAGATING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, NAMELY
FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS INCLUDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
CIMSS MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) CONTINUE TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY SPILLING OVER INTO
LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ISLANDS, ESCORTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH IT AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PROVES FRUITFUL, IT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL -- ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CONVERSELY, MODEL GUIDANCE
OF THE ECMWF DEPICTS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE, NEGATING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A
DEPICTION OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE
VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS, THERE IS NO OBVIOUS
OUTCOME GENERATING QUITE A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD.
FURTHER ANALYSIS ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
BE REQUIRED TO DETERMINE WHICH MODEL WILL BECOME THE FAVORED
SCENARIO.
AVIATION
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL AID IN BREEZY
TO WINDY TRADES PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS, NAMELY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE FOR TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. AIRMET TANGO WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR 30
KT OR GREATER SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN OAHU AND BIG ISLAND.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS, IS DRIVING
FRESH TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD 30N AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL, AS WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH. ELSEWHERE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SOME ZONES MAY DROP
OUT OF THE SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS EASE FOR LEEWARD ZONES
AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE NEAR 30N TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN POSSIBLY TO MORE GENTLE
TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD VEER THE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS.
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND IMPACTS THAN THE EC
THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW.
THE CURRENT SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY (030 TO 050 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY (HSA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
BUOY 51000 IS STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF ENERGY THAT MAY LIKELY KEEP
SURF ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
HOLDING OFF EXTENDING HSA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ALL AVAILABLE DATA AND MAKE A DETERMINATION LATER TODAY.
ROUGH, CHOPPY EAST SHORE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOCAL AND UPSTREAM TRADE WINDS SPEEDS EASE.
MEANWHILE, A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THAT
PEAKED LAST NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. ANOTHER SMALL,
LONG PERIOD, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A SMALL UPTICK IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED YESTERDAY WILL
SLOWLY FADE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL FILL IN OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING SURF ALONG
SOUTH FROM GOING FLAT.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING MODERATE TO BREEZY BEFORE THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TEMPERATURE
INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL RANGE FROM
9,000 TO 10,000 FEET TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR OLOMANA-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI EAST-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI
WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-BIG
ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-
BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...ALMANZA
FIRE WEATHER...PIERCE
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