080
FXHW60 PHFO 140117
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
317 PM HST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TRADES INTO FRIDAY AS FREQUENT SHOWERS PERSIST OVER
WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. A DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
STRONG 592DM RIDGE AT 500MB MAINTAINS A 1033MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 35N/150W THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG TRADES INTO FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AND A
FEW GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WINDIEST LOCALES AND FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI COUNTY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF STRONG TRADES IS
A BAND OF REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TAKING AIM DIRECTLY ON WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE AVERAGED 1-3" IN THIS
AREA, AND THAT INCLUDES THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN HAMAKUA COAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND WHERE MULTIPLE STATIONS REPORTED IN EXCESS OF 2" WITH A
PEAK OBSERVATION OF 3.15" UPSLOPE OF LAUPAHOEHOE AS OF 1PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE BUDGING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH SUBTLE
VEERING OF WIND TO A MORE E DIRECTION THAN THE CURRENT ENE DURING
FRIDAY SUGGESTS A GRADUAL PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT
AN INCREASING FOCUS ON THE SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. OVERALL, SEEMS PRUDENT TO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" OVER THE SAME AREAS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BRINGING
48-HOUR TOTALS INTO THE 2-6" RANGE. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF HALEAKALA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS,
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CONSIDERABLY LESS ORGANIZED AND
SHALLOWER CLOUDS OVER. NONETHELESS, SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTENTLY
REGENERATED OVER THE TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE KO'OLAU RANGE OF OAHU. THIS IS PROBABLY ATTRIBUTABLE DIMINISHED
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY OWING TO ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION. LITTLE PENETRATION OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL OAHU HAS
BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS SHOWERS
DEEPEN DURING THE NOCTURNAL PERIOD.
A DRYING TREND COMMENCES LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BAND OF
PARTICULARLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG 25N ADVANCES
INTO THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS LIKELY CRASH DOWN TO 5KFT OR LOWER
BY EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. TRADES WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY. ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IN THE VERY WINDIEST LOCALES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING CRITERIA TOMORROW IS OTHERWISE LOW.
THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING COMMENCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A
PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER.
AVIATION
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THAT TIME AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
FARTHER EASTWARD. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR, INCLUDING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS, OVER
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS, OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS FREQUENT.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI
AND OAHU COULD WARRANT DROPPING IT FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. THIS AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS, IS DRIVING
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST TOWARD 30N AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
SOME ZONES WILL DROP OUT OF THE SCA TOMORROW EVENING AS WINDS AND
SEAS EASE FOR ZONES AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER NORTHEAST OF THE STATE NEAR 30N TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN
POSSIBLY TO MORE GENTLE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD VEER THE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO MORE LIGHT TO
MODERATE LEVELS. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND
IMPACTS THAN THE EC THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
LOW.
THE CURRENT SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY (030 TO 050 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. ROUGH, CHOPPY
EAST SHORE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOCAL AND UPSTREAM TRADE WINDS SPEEDS EASE. ANOTHER
SMALL, LONG PERIOD, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SMALL UPTICK IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED YESTERDAY WILL
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SWELLS WILL FILL IN OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING SURF FROM GOING
FLAT.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THAT TIME AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
FARTHER EASTWARD. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR, INCLUDING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS, OVER
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS, OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS FREQUENT.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI
AND OAHU COULD WARRANT DROPPING IT FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. THIS AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL EAST FACING
SHORES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAIWI CHANNEL- MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS- MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...WALSH
FIRE WEATHER...JVC
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