041
FXHW60 PHFO 141405
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
405 AM HST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THE
WEEKEND. A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND, KEEPING FREQUENT MODERATE TO
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A DRYING TREND
LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
FILTERS IN.
DISCUSSION
A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL DOWN TREND TODAY TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PAST 12 HRS RANGE FROM .20 INCHES
TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES FOR SOME OF THE WETTER LOCATIONS ALONG
WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOWS A LINGERING BAND OF CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WITH WINDWARD AND MAUKA
REGIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIMSS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS JUST
EAST OF THIS BAND WHICH WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO DROP AS THIS DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK TO 5 KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
SATURDAY, BRINGING AN END TO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
A FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FURTHER
WEAKENING WINDS LOCALLY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS TO THE NE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FILL IN FIRST
FOR BIG ISLAND THEN FOR THE REST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL INCREASE INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND CHANCES OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR VALUES 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONSFROM NORMAL.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TODAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR, INCLUDING ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS, OVER WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS, OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS FREQUENT.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY WHICH COULD WARRANT
DROPPING THE AIRMET FOR ALL OR SOME REMAINING ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. THIS AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A LARGE SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL NEARSHORE WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL TRAVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING,
RESULTING IN DECREASING EASTERLIES FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ALL-WATER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
WESTERN MARINE ZONES WILL FALL OFF TONIGHT WITH ZONES FROM THE
KAIWI CHANNEL EASTWARD REMAINING IN THE SCA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
MORNING. A SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE TRADITIONALLY WINDY
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
COULD VEER MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS A TOUCH SOUTH OF EAST.
THE RECENT SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST CHOP GENERATED BY A STRONG TRADE
FETCH WILL BE ON THE GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED, ROUGH EAST-FACING SHORE SURF REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY EAST SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF WEAKENING LOCAL AND
UPSTREAM TRADES. THE SMALL KINE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT PEAKED
YESTERDAY (THURSDAY) WILL FADE THROUGH TODAY. A SMALLER SIZE,
MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN THIS WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE A SMALL BOOST TO NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORE SURF. THE
SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED YESTERDAY WILL SLOWLY
FADE THROUGH TODAY. VERY SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL TREND DOWN TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR, INCLUDING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS, OVER
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS, OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS FREQUENT. CURRENT
INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOPE FROM 7 KFT AROUND KAUAI TO 16 KFT AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 5
KFT OR LOWER SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILLS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY WHICH COULD WARRANT
DROPPING THE AIRMET FOR ALL OR SOME REMAINING AREAS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN BELOW 10,000 FEET. THIS AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO SATURDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR OLOMANA-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI EAST-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI
WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-BIG
ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...BLOOD
FIRE WEATHER...ALMANZA
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