615
FXHW60 PHFO 121919
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
919 AM HST FRI DEC 12 2025
UPDATE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS WINDS AT THE SUMMITS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER UPDATES WERE MADE THIS
MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
A DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER BETWEEN MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING, WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER, MOISTURE-LADEN FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 340 AM HST FRI DEC 12 2025/
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONT BETWEEN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT, GRANTED MOST OF THE RAINFALL FELL OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU
AND MOLOKAI THROUGHOUT MUCH OF YESTERDAY AS THE FRONT INITIALLY
ADVANCED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING ALLOWING LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY, TODAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, THOUGH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, NAMELY ACROSS MAUI
COUNTY, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS.
ADDITIONALLY, LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MAUNAKEA WEATHER
CENTER CONTINUE TO DISPLAY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SUMMITS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, OPTED TO EXTENDING THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OUT 6 MORE HOURS, NOW SET TO EXPIRE AT 22Z
(12P HST LT) AND TO BE REEVALUATED BY THE ONCOMING SHIFT.
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT
FROM LIGHT TO MORE MODERATE, AND VEER FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE AMERICAN MODEL (GFS)
AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECWMF) DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONT ADVANCING
TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AGAIN; THIS ONE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS AND MORE MOISTURE-LADEN,
POSING A BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE IMPACTED ISLANDS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ARRAY OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT,
INITIALLY TO KAUAI AND SURROUNDING WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
PROCEEDING EASTWARD TO OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY BY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT
THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BAND AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE.
THERE'S A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS REGARD, AND
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO FORGO ANY FLOOD RELATED PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME AS FURTHER ANALYSIS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO.
UPON THE DEPARTURE OF SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS ON TUESDAY, THE
SURFACE LOW ESCORTING THE FRONT TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
MOVE FAR NORTH AND WEAKEN, LEAVING AN ORPHANED FRONTAL MOISTURE
BAND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL STRATUS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD INCREASE CHANCES OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVER INTERIOR AREAS, GENERATING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AROUND MAUI COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN
AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
CLD AND SHRA.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000 FEET
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY BUT MAYBE CANCELLED LATER THIS
MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MARINE...
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE EASTERN NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE ISLANDS FALL DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST, GENTLE WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE
WESTERN ISLAND COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) MAGNITUDES AROUND THE ISLANDS OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI SATURDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS WEEKEND'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST
SWELL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY ELEVATE SEAS TO SCA
LEVELS.
A MODERATE SIZE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL (330 DEGREE) THAT
PEAKED THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A NORTH PULSE (350 DEGREE) WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD HEAD HIGH (OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER) SURF
WITHIN THE HIGHER SETS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING GALE
LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY WILL SEND A
SIMILAR MODERATE SIZE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL
TOWARD THE STATE. THIS SWELL IS SCHEDULED TO PASS AROUND THE
ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LIFT SURF BACK UP TO HIGH SURF
ADVISORY (HSA) HEIGHTS. A MIX OF SMALLER SIZE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS (350-010 DEGREE) WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
WILL ASSIST IN MAINTAINING AT LEAST HEAD HIGH SURF ALONG MANY
BETTER NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN SMALL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF TRADE WINDS. EASTERN EXPOSURES BETTER EXPOSED TO
NORTH SWELL WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK IN SEAS. EXPECT MINIMAL
BACKGROUND SURF FOR SOUTH-FACING SHORES. SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURES
ON PRIMARILY KAUAI AND OAHU MAY RECEIVE SMALL TO MODERATE CHOPPY
WIND WAVE SWELL THIS WEEKEND FROM STRENGTHENED SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AHUE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...BLOOD
FIRE WEATHER...PIERCE
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