313
FXHW60 PHFO 130222
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
422 PM HST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ENHANCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES, THEN STALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISSIPATING TROUGH
JUST NORTH OF MAUI THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WERE RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND MORE MOISTURE-LADEN FRONT.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING KAUAI COUNTY LATE SATURDAY, THEN MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS OAHU ON SUNDAY, BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THOSE OF RECENT MEMORY IS THE
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A 120 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
JET. THIS JET WILL HELP DEEPEN THE FRONT AND PROVIDE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STRONG UPLIFT. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A MATURE
JET-FRONT SYSTEM THAT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BAND WILL SETUP, BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI, NIIHAU, AND
OAHU FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
UPON THE DEPARTURE OF SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS ON TUESDAY, THE
SURFACE LOW ESCORTING THE FRONT TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
MOVE FAR NORTH AND WEAKEN. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DATELINE ON MONDAY, THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT
THAT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST, THEN STALLS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE, BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTLY WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
INCREASE CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS AND SHRA OVER INTERIOR AREAS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU SATURDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR/MVFR CONDS.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FRESH SOUTHERLIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE WESTERN WATERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD NW SWELL GRADUALLY DECLINES THROUGH
SATURDAY. N PULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY IN
MAINTENANCE OF ELEVATED SURF INTO WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING GALE JUST
NW OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SEND A SIMILAR MODERATE, MEDIUM
PERIOD NW SWELL TOWARD THE STATE. THIS SWELL WILL ADVANCE THROUGH
AREA WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY INCREASING SURF TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY (HSA) THRESHOLD. A MIX OF SMALLER, MEDIUM PERIOD N SWELLS
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG EXPOSED N SHORELINES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG E SHORES REMAINS SMALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
GIVEN THE LACK OF TRADES. EXPECT MINIMAL BACKGROUND SURF FOR S
SHORES. S AND SW EXPOSURES WILL SEE INCREASED SHORT PERIOD FRESH
SWELL AND WIND WAVES EMANATING FROM STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR
KAUAI AND OAHU.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY STEADILY INCREASING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY, THEN STALLS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
CHANCES EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES, THEN STALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-
KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-
KOOLAU WINDWARD-KOOLAU LEEWARD.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...AHUE
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