374
FXHW60 PHFO 141339
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 AM HST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LIGHT TO MODERATE HYBRID EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDY, UNSETTLED
WET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS, AND A DRIER MORE
STABLE EASTERLY WEATHER PATTERN TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII. TWO COLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, EACH FRONT WILL THEN STALL
OUT AND DIMINISH INTO A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING WESTWARD. OVERALL
EXPECT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER CONDITIONS, INCLUDING
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A COMBINATION OF THE LOCAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KAUAI CHANNEL TOWARDS
OAHU. A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND OF SHOWERS IS ALSO RIDING
INTO OAHU THIS MORNING, SPREADING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE OVER OAHU AND POSSIBLY OVER THE ISLAND OF MOLOKAI
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT STALLS OUT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE
NARROW FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LATEST WEATHER MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS FADING FRONTAL BAND
WILL STALL OUT NEAR OAHU AND MOLOKAI LATER TODAY, THEN WEAKEN
INTO A TROUGH AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD BACK OVER KAUAI BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SHOWER AMOUNTS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL OR TROUGH AXIS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ELEVATE CONVECTIVE FLASH
FLOODING RISKS.
ANOTHER COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE HAWAII REGION BY MONDAY, THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL
ABSORB THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY, AND THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT
STALLING OUT AND DIMINISHING INTO A TROUGH NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PRODUCING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER BOTH ISLANDS.
THIS UNSETTLED LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WIND PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING LINGERS JUST
NORTH OF HAWAII.
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH KAUAI OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REACH OAHU LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A BAND OF
SHOWERS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING INTO OAHU FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR, OR
EVEN IFR, CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR
KAUAI AND OAHU. AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS MAY BECOME AN IFR
AIRMET.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
ACROSS KAUAI, OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THIS AIRMET MAY BE CANCELLED LATER
TODAY AS WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION DECREASE.
MARINE
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH KAUAI OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH OAHU THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND WEAKENS, THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE BECOMING LOCALLY FRESH OUT OF THE
SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MID- WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST HAVE BEGUN TO
FILL INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE NEW MODERATE MEDIUM TO LONG
PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND PEAK THIS EVENING AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING MONDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
STARTING AT NOON TODAY AS THE SWELL RISES THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO
TRAVEL TIME, WESTERN SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FOR MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU WINDWARD WATERS DUE
TO THE INCOMING SWELL AND ALSO THE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY TOO. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY TO SMALL GIVEN THE LACK OF
TRADE WINDS BUT SHORELINES EXPOSED TO THE NORTH SWELLS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE CHOP MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT. A
SLIGHT LULL IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND INCREASES THE WIND WAVES COMING FROM
THE SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE, WHILE MORE STABLE AND DRIER EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER ARE FORECAST
TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI AND
POSSIBLY LANAI; WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL
RANGE FROM 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-
KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
KAUAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...ALMANZA
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
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