444
FXHW60 PHFO 061358
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 AM HST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN WEST OF
THE ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
STATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE LOW MEANDERS AWAY, IT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, GREATLY DECREASING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WEAKENING AS IT DOES, GREATLY DECREASING THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE
OPTED TO EXPIRE THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE STATE. SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ITS WAKE BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, RETURNING SOME SENSE OF STABILITY TO THE
ISLANDS, AND MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TO AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY,
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SNOW TRENDS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO EXPIRING THE WIND
ADVISORY, ALSO FOR THE SUMMITS, AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS AS WELL.
FURTHERMORE, THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
LIGHTER ACROSS THE STATE, SHIFTING TO A MORE LAND-SEA BREEZE
PATTERN. IN SUCH A PATTERN, ISLAND HEATING WILL DEVELOP SEA
BREEZES EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL DRIVE DOWNSLOPING
LAND BREEZES EACH NIGHT. DURING THE DAY, SEA BREEZES WILL ENHANCE
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR REGION SHOWER ACTIVITY, WHILE LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR THE NIGHT SKIES AND LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ESCORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE STATE. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BRING PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. FURTHER
ANALYSIS WILL BE NEEDED CLOSER TO DATE TO DETAIL THE EVENTS MORE
CLEARLY.
AVIATION
A TROUGH WEST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND KAUAI AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE ABOVE 8000 FEET TODAY,
THOUGH WINDS AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI AND WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
THE BIG ISLAND ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DUE LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURB DUE TO THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
AIRMET ZULU REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE RIME ICING ACROSS THE
STATE, BUT WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED DOWN AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
MARINE
A TROUGH WEST OF HAWAII WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TODAY
BECOMING GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS WEDNESDAY. A FRONT
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FURTHER EASE WIND
SPEEDS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS TO COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE NEAR
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. BRIEF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE
SPEEDS SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, VEERING WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE MODERATE BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD, NORTH NORTHEAST (040-060 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY AND DECLINE TODAY. A SMALL, LONG PERIOD,
NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT, PEAK
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. FORERUNNERS FOR THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL (330
DEGREE) IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SATURDAY. THIS
SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WARNING SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES. SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS
TIME FOR MOST WATERS. ANOTHER, LARGE TO EXTRA LARGE, NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL MAY FILL IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURF HEIGHTS
PEAKING WELL INTO WARNING LEVELS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPOSED EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST
SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE AND ROUGH EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE
LOCAL AND UPSTREAM EASTERLY WINDS. SURF WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED. MOST TIDE GAUGES
SHOW PEAK WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED NEAR TO BELOW MINOR FLOODING
LEVELS DURING PEAK TIDES MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW
MINOR FLOODING LEVELS WITH THE PEAK HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR OLOMANA-KAUAI
EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...ALMANZA
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