061
FXHW60 PHFO 070204
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
404 PM HST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF HAWAII
FILLS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. A DEEP RIDGE
SETTLING OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT INTERIOR SHOWERS. A DISSIPATING
FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY AS BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FILLING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII AS IT DRIFTS AWAY, LIMITING INSTABILITY LOCALLY. ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS, BUT THE BROAD ZONE OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS
PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED WEST OF HAWAII. AS A
RESULT, RAIN RATES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE STATE, AND
THE WETTEST WINDWARD SLOPES ON KAUAI AND BIG ISLAND HAVE MEASURED
GENERALLY BETWEEN A THIRD TO AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MOST LEEWARD AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY, BUT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
THINNED, INTERIOR BIG ISLAND HAS EXPERIENCE A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH KONA SLOPES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT ALL AREAS TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE AS GRADUAL DRYING TREND
OVERNIGHT AS TRADES BEGIN TO DECLINE.
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO EASE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OUT OF
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE EAST AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST DRIFTS
AWAY. DRIER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL LEAD TO A DECLINE IN RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST SLOPES. SEA BREEZES WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS, BUT ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND, SHOWERS WILL BE
ISOLATED.
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ON THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES
IN THE AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING INTERIOR CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE, KEEPING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION MINIMAL.
A SHALLOW AND WEAKENING FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO KAUAI ON FRIDAY,
THEN STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. AS SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FOR
KAUAI ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS OAHU ON SATURDAY,
THE REST OF THE STATE WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
DOMINATED BY LIGHT LAND AND SEA BREEZES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND DISSIPATES AND
LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING FRONT. THIS POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT MAY MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
A SLOW DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY AS BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS MOISTURE OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES.
STABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES
EASTWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND AND KAUAI WHERE
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN PLACE. EXPECT THE
AIRMET TO BE DROPPED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST LEADS TO A DECREASE IN RAINFALL. EXPECT SPOTTY HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNDOWN, WHILE VFR PREVAILS OVER OTHER LEEWARD AREAS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURB OVER AND WEST OF
TERRAIN DUE TO THE GUSTY TRADES. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE TAKEN
DOWN AS WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TONIGHT AS
A TROUGH WEST OF HAWAII WEAKENS AND TRACKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
STATE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. A FRONT
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
WINDS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY, THEN DISSIPATES NEAR THE CENTRAL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, VEERING
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE MODERATE BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS, EXCEPT THE OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS AND MAALAEA BAY. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN FALL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE BIG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEA THEN FALL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD, NORTH-NORTHEAST (040-060 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER EASTERLY AND DECLINE TONIGHT. A SMALL, LONG
PERIOD, NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT, PEAK
WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. FORERUNNERS FOR THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL (330 DEGREE)
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. ANOTHER, LARGE TO EXTRA LARGE, NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL MAY FILL
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURF HEIGHTS PEAKING WELL INTO WARNING LEVELS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPOSED EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST SWELL
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ROUGH EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE LOCAL AND
UPSTREAM EASTERLY WINDS. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR OLOMANA-KAUAI
EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...AHUE
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