870
FXHW60 PHFO 071345
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, INSTILLING A LAND-SEA BREEZE
REGIME IN RESPONSE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SUPPORTED. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE STATE, BUT STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE WESTERN ISLANDS. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT PROPAGATES
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND MAY BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD CONUS. AS A
RESULT, TRADES WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DECREASING
WINDS, A LAND- SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL INSTILL, SUPPORTING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF MOST
ISLANDS. OVERALL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. IN ADDITION, LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA
OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS FROM THE
EAST, INCREASING THE OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE STATE AND
FURTHER LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE A SHALLOW, WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAINS. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO KAUAI ON FRIDAY, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO OAHU EARLY
DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE LATEST
EVENT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY ASIDE FROM ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONGOING LAND-SEA BREEZE REGIME. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE, ALONG
WITH ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST DETAILS WILL
BE REFINED WITH ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
AVIATION
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS A
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE ERODES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST FILTERS
IN, THUS HAVE CANCELLED AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY,
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES AS
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SHELTERED LEEWARD SLOPES AND
INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE
TURB OVER AND WEST OF TERRAIN DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. THIS AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE TAKEN DOWN AS WINDS EASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND, THOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE WINDS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON
THURSDAY AS THEY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, THEN DISSIPATE NEAR
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS BY SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY, THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD, NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD
THIS MORNING, PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORERUNNERS FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LARGE, LONG
PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL (330 DEGREE) ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ANOTHER, LARGE TO EXTRA LARGE, NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL MAY FILL IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURF HEIGHTS PEAKING WELL INTO WARNING
LEVELS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES HAS FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPLY DECLINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL FADES AND EASTERLY
WIND SWELL DECREASES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...VAUGHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page