384
FXHW60 PHFO 080101
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
301 PM HST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
SEA BREEZE PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT CLEARING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A QUICK BUT WIDESPREAD
EPISODE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATES BEHIND THE
FRONT BRINGING A SEASONABLE CHILL TO THE AIR LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS THE MID-LATITUDE STORM TRACK SAGS SOUTH AND PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC, THE TRADE WIND BELT IS WEAKENING AND
IS ACTIVELY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCALLY, TRADES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER AND WEAKEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN LEAVES THE ISLANDS
IN A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON, BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN LIMITED.
CLEARING WITH GENTLE OFFSHORE FLOW LIKELY EACH NIGHT. REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE IMPINGES ON KAUAI DURING THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY
PROVIDING A BOOST TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS THERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DRIVING A MUCH STRONGER AND CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVERGENT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DEPTH IS
MODELED TO BE APPRECIABLE, EASILY IN EXCESS OF 10KFT, WHILE MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE REALISTIC GIVEN
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY
PROGRESSIVE, BRIEF HIT OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND. DRY POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLIES BRING A RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE 50S DURING MONDAY. MODERATE NNE WINDS AND 50S
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A CHILL TO THE AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHELTERED LOCALES WHERE WIND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY SEE TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO TYPICAL
NE TRADES BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BECOMING
LIGHT BY THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT
AND SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY. SEA BREEZES MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG SHELTERED LEEWARD SLOPES AND INTERIOR AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND TONIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL THEN BE
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN DECLINING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS
A SURFACE RIDGE TRAILING THE HIGH IS PUSHED OVER KAUAI BY AN
ADVANCING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT STALLS NEAR
KAUAI ON FRIDAY, KEEPING MOST WATERS UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD,
GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LIKELY
BRINGING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT WAKE.
SMALL TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PAIR OF LARGER SWELLS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST (290-315 DEGREES) SWELL
PEAKED AROUND 4 FEET 16 SECONDS AND WILL DROP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A STORM LOW DEEPENING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY WILL GENERATE A LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST (330 DEGREES) SWELL
THAT WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY AND PEAK THROUGH SUNDAY,
PRODUCING SURF NEAR HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND
SOME WEST FACING SHORES. ANOTHER STORM LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO HAWAII THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE A LARGER SWELL FROM
320 TO 330 DEGREES. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE
HSW THRESHOLDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPLY DECLINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS EASTERLY WIND SWELL DECREASES. EAST SHORE
SURF WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WINDS OVER AND UPWIND OF HAWAII REMAIN WEAK. SOME INCREASE IN EAST
SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG SOUTH SHORES,
WRAPPING EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL DROP OFF THURSDAY, AND
SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...WROE
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