223
FXHW60 PHFO 081330
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT WINDS, WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR
OF THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A
LINE OF SHOWERS QUICKLY DOWN THE CHAIN ON MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY
LINGER NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING A SEASONABLE CHILL TO THE AIR
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT THE GENERAL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY
THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS DUE A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LAND BREEZES WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE ISLANDS.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY, REACHING KAUAI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF,
BUT BOTH MODELS SHOWS A FAST MOVING BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW,
AND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT IN ANY SORT OF AGREEMENT, AND JUST
A LITTLE HIGHER. WITH THE NBM PROBABILITIES LOW HAVE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE ISLANDS WITH THE
FRONT.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COLDER DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN IN A VERY STABLE AIRMASS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE COOLEST, WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S, WHILE THE ECMWF IN THE UPPER 50S, AND
THE NBM IN THE LOW 60S. WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE COOLER DEWPOINTS
TO FOLLOW SUCH A FRONT, THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE GFS DEWPOINTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO TYPICAL
NORTHEAST TRADES BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH, WEAKENING THE
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD
TO SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FORMING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, AND NONE ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS DUE
TO AN ADVANCING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AS LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RULE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHWEST OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY AS GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD,
GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS, LAND AND SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT WAKE.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO MODERATE DUE
TO A GRADUALLY DECLINING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STORM LOW DEEPENING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL GENERATE A
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST (330 DEGREES) SWELL THAT WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
ON SATURDAY AND PEAK THROUGH SUNDAY, PRODUCING SURF NEAR HIGH
SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES.
ANOTHER STORM LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO HAWAII THIS
WEEKEND AND GENERATE A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (320-330 DEG)
SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE HSW
THRESHOLDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STAY TUNED AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS OVER AND UPWIND OF HAWAII REMAIN WEAK. SOME
INCREASE IN EAST SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG
SOUTH SHORES, SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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