726
FXHW60 PHFO 090133
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 PM HST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THUS, EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE REGIME TO CONTINUE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON, THEN
CLEARING AT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS QUICKLY DOWN
THE CHAIN ON MONDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING A SEASONABLE CHILL TO THE AIR LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER, POSSIBLY STRONGER, FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAS ONCE AGAIN
ALLOWED FOR LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE SPARSE AND LIMITED TO MAINLY INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A PATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE DID MANAGE TO AFFECT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRING GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE. A HANDFUL OF SITES IN THAT REGION REPORTED RAINFALL
TOTALS, SINCE MIDNIGHT, OF JUST OVER HALF AN INCH. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL THIS LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN WANE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO STALL THEN
DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF KAUAI, WITH WINDS AROUND STATE REMAINING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS DISSIPATING
FEATURE COULD BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OAHU. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT FAIR SKIES WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR REGIONS. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
ON SUNDAY, LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEEPEN A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE STATE AND SHOW A
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND FRONT THE NORTHWEST.
IN RESPONSE, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH MODEL TIMING BEING NEARLY IDENTICAL,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLOODING CONCERNS. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT DOWN TO THE MID-60S. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO TYPICAL NORTHEAST TRADES BY
TUESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD, THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS AND MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OVER HAWAII WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LAND
BREEZES TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. CURRENTLY, AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED
FOR THIS AREA FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET,
AND WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. OTHWERSE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM A WEAK FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO KAUAI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL CAUSE LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RULE OVER THE MARINE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND ITS REMNANTS
LIFT NORTHWARD, GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY, GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER WINDS, LAND AND SEA BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LIKELY USHERING IN FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT WAKE.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO MODERATE DUE
TO A GRADUALLY DECLINING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STORM LOW DEEPENING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL GENERATE A
LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST (330 DEGREES) SWELL THAT WILL BUILD IN
RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY AND PEAK THROUGH SUNDAY, PRODUCING SURF NEAR
HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING
SHORES. ANOTHER STORM LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO HAWAII
THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (320-330
DEG) SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE HSW
THRESHOLDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STAY TUNED AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS OVER AND UPWIND OF HAWAII REMAIN WEAK. SOME
INCREASE IN EAST SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG
SOUTH SHORES, SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FARRIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page