077
FXHW60 PHFO 100151
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE ISLANDS. BY LATE SUNDAY,
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN
SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A LINE OF
STEADY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS LOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER AND DRYER
AIRMASS. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ISLAND BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A BAND OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD EAST- WEST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING JUST NORTH OF KAUAI. MOISTURE WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED ON THIS
MORNINGS 12Z LIHUE RAOB SOUNDING. NONETHELESS, THE ADDED
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY INTERIOR REGIONS OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. ELSEWHERE, POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
BY SATURDAY, WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOSTLY FIZZLED AWAY. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AND ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND SPOTTY INTERIOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
SUNDAY, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING WITH THE FRONT CROSSING KAUAI
AND OAHU MONDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS LOW. BY
NIGHTFALL, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING AND WEAKENING
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE
QUITE A NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. RESIDENTS MAY
NEED TO WEAR TWO ALOHA SHIRTS TO KEEP WARM DURING THE CHILLY
WEATHER. TRADES RESUME BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK NORTH OF THE
REGION.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DOWN TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
BOTH MODELS AGREE ON TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE IT QUICKLY
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, EXPECT
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF TYPICAL TRADE FLOW.
AVIATION
INTERIOR CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LAND
BREEZES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH INTERIOR CLOUDS
AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS. ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN BY LATE MORNING. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS AS A FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST WATERS
THIS EVENING, MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) SEAS THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL, GIVING WAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
LATE SUNDAY. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER WINDS, LAND AND SEA BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LIKELY USHERING IN FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS THE CURRENT
NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECLINE. SURF IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE BUOYS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
SWELL WILL LIKELY PEAK SATURDAY EVENING, PRODUCING SURF NEAR HIGH
SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND SOME WEST FACING SHORES.
SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON SUNDAY BEFORE AN EVEN LARGER LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY, LIKELY ABOVE THE HSW
THRESHOLDS. SURF WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS OVER AND UPWIND OF HAWAII REMAIN WEAK. SOME INCREASE IN EAST
SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN. ALONG SOUTH SHORES, SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...FARRIS
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