800
FXHW60 PHFO 101532 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
532 AM HST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE STATE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS. THE SECOND
FRONT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER NORTH OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT AROUND
1.5 INCHES WITH BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID DAY TODAY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS AND RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. FOR
SUNDAY, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, BUT GENERALLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE LESS DUE TO DRIER LOWER LEVELS.
STARTING SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH KAUAI
AND WE COULD SEE SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING WITH THE FRONT CROSSING KAUAI AND
OAHU MONDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEARS
LOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING AND
WEAKENING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE
WILL BE QUITE A NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY MORNING
WILL START OFF CHILLY BY HAWAII STANDARDS, BUT SHOULD BE A FAIR
WEATHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DOWN TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST FRONT WITH BREEZY TO STRONG
KONA WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE IT QUICKLY DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
WENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT BEING
STRONGER, WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN, A COOLER AND
DRYER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE STATE HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
FOR A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE STATE. FOR TODAY, SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR INTERIOR CLOUDS
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE LAND BREEZES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL TODAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS AS A FRONT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON MONDAY, STALLING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. AN
EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS,
SPREADING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS
EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL, THESE ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 10
FEET ARE FORECAST TO LAST AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR WATERS
AND CHANNELS EXPOSED TO THIS RISING NORTHWEST SWELL.
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING THROUGH HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WILL INCREASE SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY (HSA) WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR EXPOSED NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES. OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING AT BUOY
51001 AND 51101, SHOW QUICKLY RISING SEAS FROM THIS NEXT LARGE
NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON THE
WAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL SWIFTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
ISLANDS EXPOSED TO THIS RISING NORTHWEST SWELL. SWELL ENERGY WILL
THEN HOLD ABOVE HSA THRESHOLDS INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER MUCH LARGER
OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL SWIFTLY BUILDS SURF
TO HIGH SURF WARNING LEVELS POTENTIALLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER XL SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE ISLANDS BY LATE
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF WARNING LEVEL
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS OVER AND UPWIND OF HAWAII REMAIN WEAK. SOME INCREASE IN EAST
SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN. ALONG SOUTH SHORES, SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-WAIANAE
COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...BOHLIN
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