319
FXHW60 PHFO 111400
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
STABLE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TODAY. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THEN BRINGS A QUICK HIT
OF SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STARTING TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH KAUAI AND WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KAUAI TONIGHT, OAHU ON
MONDAY MORNING, AND MAUI COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WEAKENING AND STALLING AROUND THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MAIN INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE, THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE OF MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE QUITE A NOTICEABLE
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER. DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START
OFF CHILLY BY HAWAII STANDARDS, BUT SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER
THAN THE FIRST FRONT WITH BREEZY TO STRONG KONA WINDS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH 850MB WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SEEN ON THE ECMWF, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
GUSTY WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF ANY TERRAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT BEING STRONGER, WE COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALSO AHEAD OF IT. FOR WEDNESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER MAUI COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND OAHU
IN THE MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, A COOL AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT, WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
STABLE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY
TONIGHT AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, AND NONE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STARTING ON
KAUAI.
MARINE
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGES ON MONDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM WEST TO EAST, STALLING OUT
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS,
SPREADING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS
EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL, THESE ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS
AROUND 10 FEET ARE FORECAST TO LINGER OVER WATERS AND CHANNELS
EXPOSED TO THIS NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) WAS EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES EXPOSED TO THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY. THIS SWELL WILL HOLD ABOVE HSA THRESHOLDS
INTO MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER MUCH LARGER OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST
(320-330 DEGREE) SWELL SWIFTLY BUILDS SURF TO HIGH SURF WARNING
(HSW) LEVELS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN
HSW ON MONDAY TO COVER THIS NEXT WARNING LEVEL SURF EVENT. YET
ANOTHER XL NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL DIMINISH INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A CONTINUED DISRUPTION IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-WAIANAE
COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...BOHLIN
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