322
FXHW60 PHFO 121358
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 AM HST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
THROUGH MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRE- FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE
QUITE GUSTY. THE WEEK SHOULD END COOL AND FAIRLY DRY WITH TRADES
RE- ESTABLISHED.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A THICK CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT CENTER OVER KAUAI COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BEEN SEE
WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND ORIENTATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND WILL QUICKLY BECOME BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KAUAI EARLY THIS MORNING THEN OAHU
REST OF THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OVER MAUI COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ON TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL VEER RAPIDLY AROUND TO EASTERLY AND
THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. REMNANT MOISTURE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
WILL THEN SHIFT BACK WEST OVER THE STATE WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AS
MID LEVELS REMAIN STABLE.
WEDNESDAY, A NEW FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST GENERATING
A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENT ZONE WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
IN ADDITION, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND JUST
DOWNWIND (WHAT IS NORMALLY WINDWARD WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LEEWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS). HEADLINES FOR WIND
MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
GET TO KAUAI COUNTY AROUND SUNSET, OAHU IN THE EVENING, MAUI
COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE, AND BIG ISLAND BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY. FAST MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE STATE SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF FLOODING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. TRADES WILL BUILD BACK IN, PUSHING THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED AS THIS PREVENTS THE MOISTURE FROM PASSING BACK OVER THE
STATE AS WITH THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER KAUAI AND PUSHING THROUGH
OAHU REST OF THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAUI
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN,
ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVER LANAI AND MVRF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR ALL OTHER
ISLANDS WEST OF MAUI COUNTY.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR NE THROUGH SE SECTION OF KAUAI DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED AS THE FRONT
PASSES KAUAI AND BREEZY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY, STALLING OUT NEAR THE BIG ISLAND BY TONIGHT. AN EXTRA LARGE
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL QUICKLY BUILD SURF HEIGHTS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ABOVE WARNING LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS, SPREADING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL AND INCREASING WINDS.
A DANGEROUS EXTRA LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE)
SWELL WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
OFFSHORE BUOY 51001 WAS REPORTING A 12 FOOT 18 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT HST. SURF HEIGHTS WILL SWIFTLY RISE
ABOVE HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVELS AS THIS NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARNING LEVEL SURF WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
WITH THE SWELL ENERGY PROPAGATION, AND THAT MEANS ISLANDS SUCH AS
MOLOKAI AND MAUI MAY SEE A BRIEF DELAY IN THE HIGHER WARNING
LEVEL SURF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING . A HSW WAS ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR ALL EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU,
KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI WHICH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL
ENERGY MAY ALSO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
YET ANOTHER EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL
DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A CONTINUED DISRUPTION IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...BOHLIN
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