944
FXHW60 PHFO 130156
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 PM HST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
BIG ISLAND, POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND BECOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLIDE
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING A
LINE OF MODERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IT. THE WEEK SHOULD
END COOL AND FAIRLY DRY WITH TRADES RE- ESTABLISHED.
DISCUSSION
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MAUI COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND HAVE BEEN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ON KAUAI AND OAHU PICKING UP LESS THAN 0.25".
ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS, POST FRONTAL, WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SHIFTED NORTHWEST TO NORTH GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. AS A
SIDE NOTE, EPISODE 40 OF KILAUEA ERUPTIONS BEGAN THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR HAZY SKIES DUE TO INCREASED VOG ACROSS
PORTIONS BIG ISLAND DURING THE SHORT TERM.
THROUGH TONIGHT, THE LINE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CREEP TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE. ELSEWHERE, POST FRONTAL
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR COOL, STABLE, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP IN THE MID 50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE MID 60S. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE
TYPICAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, BUT DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN. THUS, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SMALLER ISLANDS.
REMNANT MOISTURE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND MAY STILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ISLAND WIDE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHERLY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY BY MID-DAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY MEET OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALONG RIDGETOPS AND AREAS DOWNSLOPE OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND DEVELOP POCKETS
OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN QUICKLY
SLIDE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS SYSTEM TO BE SIMILAR, BUT STRONGER, THAN THE ONE
EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT FLASH FLOODING RISK APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO THE SPEEDY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHERLY
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONCE AGAIN BRING NOTICEABLE DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXITING MAUI COUNTY AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE
BIG ISLAND. A BRIEF EPISODE OF MVFR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR TO LINGER THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TONIGHT AND VEER TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ON TUESDAY. VFR BEHIND THE FRONT.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOLOKAI.
SIERRA MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB FL220/280 FOR KAUAI
AND OAHU AND ADJACENT WATERS BUT MAY BE EXPANDED TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE FL280, SIGMET UNIFORM
FOR SEVERE TURBULENCE IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
MARINE
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
BACK EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN EXTRA LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE WARNING
LEVEL SURF FOR EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH
TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS, AND ALONG
WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES OF BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL.
ANOTHER EXTRA LARGE NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY, LIKELY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND LINGERING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT SUNDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE PASSING
FRONTS, WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KONA-KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...FOSTER
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