831
FXHW60 PHFO 261322
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY BEFORE PULLING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO MOST AREAS TODAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
SEA- AND LAND-BREEZES. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS FRONT, AS
WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT, POTENTIALLY STRONG, APPEARS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS OF 3:15 AM HST. THE SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OAHU BETWEEN
NOW AND AROUND SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO MAUI
COUNTY, THEN STALL BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY, BECOMING EASTERLY
THIS EVENING. BIG ISLAND WILL SEE WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS,
ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI WEST, WITH THE BIG
ISLAND SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE FRONT WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, LEAVING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MORE SEA-
AND LAND-BREEZES DEVELOPING. A NEW FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME INTO
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING IT REACHING ALL
THE WAY TO THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE OTHER RUNS SHOWING IT BARELY
MAKING IT TO OAHU. WITH NO CONSENSUS YET, WE'LL PUT SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WON'T TRY
TO BE TOO SPECIFIC ON LOCATION YET. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD (NEXT
MONDAY), MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE. OF COURSE, AT THAT TIME RANGE
THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT FOR NOW THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
A WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS,
AND A DECREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT ON KAUAI, AND
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER OAHU BY DAYBREAK, AND STALL OUT NEAR
MAUI COUNTY TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST ISLANDS BUT
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AS IT PASSES. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER FROM KAUAI AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO MAUI COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND
VEER AS LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FILL IN BY
TONIGHT.
AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVER KAUAI AND
OAHU THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO MAUI COUNTY
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. NO OTHER AIRMETS
ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EXPOSED KAUAI WATERS AND WATERS NORTH OF OAHU
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS A RESULTED IN A SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THESE AREAS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE EASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS FRONT STALLING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LINGERS
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND WATERS, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST
AND INCREASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES THEREAFTER,
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING BY MIDWEEK. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE
KAUAI WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES REMAIN SMALL
TODAY AS THE MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO EASE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING, WHERE THE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SHORT-PERIOD
AND CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS (UP TO 5 FT IN THE 2-6 SECOND BANDS AT
THE HANALEI PACIOOS BUOY). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY
AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY EASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST.
A FRESH, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY A BROAD
STORM-FORCE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT. SURF COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS A
BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW EVOLVES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS
SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND
COULD BECOME A LONG-DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING, AS THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BRIEFLY TREND UP AS THE TRADES
RETURN TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SURF EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND OAHU.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-PERIOD AND CHOPPY SURF, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES, AND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND UPSTREAM TRADE FLOW REMAINS ABSENT.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES MAY ALSO TREND UP SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS A SMALL, BACKGROUND LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES.
THIS SOURCE IS EXPECTED TO EASE BY MIDWEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...GIBBS
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