652
FXHW60 PHFO 261926
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
926 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT NOW APPROACHING MAUI
COUNTY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS MORNING FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.
LATEST 12Z HREF MODEL SHOW SHOWERS DECREASING OVER WINDWARD AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INCREASING OVER LEEWARD AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH OVER LEEWARD AREAS. OVER MAUI COUNTY SHOWERS ARE NOW
INCREASING OVER MOLOKAI AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER MAUI AS WELL LATER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVER ON THE BIG ISLAND, WE ARE
EXPECTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STAY NORTH, THUS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO MOST AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES
DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA-AND LAND-BREEZES. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE STATE INTO
SATURDAY. AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OF THIS FRONT, AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT BEHIND IT. A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 925 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
A SHALLOW FRONT MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF KAUAI, OAHU, AND MOLOKAI, WHERE AIRMET
SIERRA IS IN PLACE. THE AIRMET MAY EXPAND TO MAUI BEFORE THE
FRONT STALLS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TRADE WINDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE, AND AIRMET SIERRA WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED
BY EVENING. ON THE BIG ISLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL, EVEN THOUGH
EXTENSIVE CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST SLOPES.
ON TUESDAY, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
DRIVE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. SOME INTERIOR
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT VFR
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING AS OF 3:15 AM HST. THE SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OAHU BETWEEN
NOW AND AROUND SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO MAUI
COUNTY, THEN STALL BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY, BECOMING EASTERLY
THIS EVENING. BIG ISLAND WILL SEE WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS,
ALONG WITH SEA-BREEZE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI WEST, WITH THE BIG
ISLAND SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE FRONT WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, LEAVING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MORE SEA-
AND LAND-BREEZES DEVELOPING. A NEW FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME INTO
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING IT REACHING ALL
THE WAY TO THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE OTHER RUNS SHOWING IT BARELY
MAKING IT TO OAHU. WITH NO CONSENSUS YET, WE'LL PUT SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WON'T TRY
TO BE TOO SPECIFIC ON LOCATION YET. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD (NEXT
MONDAY), MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE. OF COURSE, AT THAT TIME RANGE
THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT FOR NOW THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST MON JAN 26 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EXPOSED KAUAI WATERS AND WATERS NORTH OF OAHU
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS A RESULTED IN A SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THESE AREAS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE EASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS FRONT STALLING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LINGERS
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND WATERS, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST
AND INCREASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES THEREAFTER,
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING BY MIDWEEK. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE
KAUAI WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES REMAIN SMALL
TODAY AS THE MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO EASE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING, WHERE THE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SHORT-PERIOD
AND CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS (UP TO 5 FT IN THE 2-6 SECOND BANDS AT
THE HANALEI PACIOOS BUOY). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY
AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY EASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST.
A FRESH, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY A BROAD
STORM-FORCE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT. SURF COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS A
BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW EVOLVES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS
SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND
COULD BECOME A LONG-DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING, AS THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BRIEFLY TREND UP AS THE TRADES
RETURN TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SURF EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND OAHU.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-PERIOD AND CHOPPY SURF, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES, AND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND UPSTREAM TRADE FLOW REMAINS ABSENT.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES MAY ALSO TREND UP SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS A SMALL, BACKGROUND LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES.
THIS SOURCE IS EXPECTED TO EASE BY MIDWEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS.
UPDATE...KINO
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...GIBBS
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