370
FXHW60 PHFO 270151
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY
AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THIS
TIME. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM HST MON JAN 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED, BUT WE ARE
STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF OAHU AND KAUAI. FOR REST OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MOISTURE LINGER AROUND THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ANY CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. FOR THE MOST PART, IT SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILD UPS, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON.
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING
THROUGH THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
FRONT STALLING OUT AND WEAKENING OVER PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS, BUT THE MOST FREQUENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WHERE BRIEF
PERIODS OF SOME MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME.
IN THE EXTENDED, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT IS
LOOKING PROGRESSIVE AND WILL LIKELY BRING A QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 350 PM HST MON JAN 26 2026
MOISTURE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
THE FRONT STALLED THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND NORTHERN TERRAIN OF KAUAI, OAHU, AND
MOLOKAI. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ON MOLOKAI AS THE FRONT STARTED
DISSIPATING, BUT AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN
EFFECT ON OAHU AND KAUAI. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT, THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, PUSHING REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON OAHU AND KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE
LIFTED AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON ON OAHU AND SHOULD BE DROPPED
EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT. ON MAUI AND BIG ISLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL.
ON TUESDAY, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
DRIVE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. SOME INTERIOR
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT VFR
WILL LIKELY DOMINATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350PM HST MON JAN 26 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING HAS WASHED OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS IS PROGRESSIVELY PASSING EAST. THIS WILL VEER LIGHT
WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STAY NORTH AND SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS
AT MID WEEK WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THESE
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES FRIDAY VEER AROUND TO MORE TRADE-LIKE BY LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS QUICKLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF FRONTS. AN EARLY WEEK FRONT MAY
TRAVEL ACROSS THE ISLANDS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES HAS REMAINED
SMALL AS THE MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THAT ARRIVED SUNDAY
CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL DECLINE. A SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE, MEDIUM
PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL, WHOSE ORIGIN SOURCE IS TRACED BACK
TO A BROAD STORM LOW TRACKING EAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS THIS PAST
WEEKEND, WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NORTH SHORE SURF COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AS THIS SWELL PEAKS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
EASING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS A BROAD, COMPLEX LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS SWELL IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AND
TRAVEL AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
LONG DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW CONCERNING THIS LATE WEEK SWELL
AS MODEL GUIDANCE STILL NEEDS TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH THE
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS SWELL.
SHORT-LIVED, CHOPPY WIND WAVE CHOP WILL OCCUR ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN RESPONSE TO RETURN TRADE FLOW. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY.
SOUTH-FACING SHORE SURF MAY ALSO TREND UP SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS A
RESULT OF A SMALL, BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL. THIS SWELL
WILL EASE BY MID WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...BLOOD
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