043
FXHW60 PHFO 280659
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
859 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, AND THE ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAK FRONT COULD INCREASE SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT
COULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WELL AS BRING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH TO A LOCATION OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND BREEZES PRESENT OR DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DECAYING DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN MOST AREAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE FIZZLED OUT
OVER LAND AREAS, WITH ONLY A FEW NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT, A SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE FIZZING OUT IN THE AND
EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
KAUAI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE, NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANT
MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE LATER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, BRINGING A LINE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE ISLANDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A LAND AND
SEABREEZE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SOME INTERIOR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THAT WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
CURRENTLY, NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS. THE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WATERS AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE KAUAI AND OAHU WATERS. WHILE MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES, TERRAIN-INDUCED ACCELERATIONS WILL LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WHERE THE FLOW PARALLELS
TO THE COAST, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL BUILD DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH HEIGHTS EXCEEDING ADVISORY-
LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST
CLIMBED ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE BEGUN TO
TREND BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED BY AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE THE SURF DIPS BELOW CRITERIA.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM A BROAD AND COMPLEX
LOW THAT HAS EVOLVED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM PARKED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC AT 974
MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS,
WITH A CAPTURED FETCH FOCUSED AT THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE 290 TO
315 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL BANDS. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND COULD BECOME A LONG-DURATION EVENT,
WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN WARNING LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WATER REACHING AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING VULNERABLE LOW-
LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD WILL INCREASE
IN THE EVENT THE PEAK OF THE SURF COINCIDES WITH THE LARGE TIDES
THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL EACH DAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE LOCAL WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AND THE LACK OF
TRADES UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE EASING THURSDAY AS SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL MOVES THROUGH.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...GIBBS
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