457
FXHW60 PHFO 281950
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
950 AM HST WED JAN 28 2026
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM HST WED JAN 28 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO A LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH MINIMAL CLOUD AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MAINLY INTERIOR REGIONS. FORECAST
LARGELY REMAINS IN CHECK. HOWEVER, SHORT TERM MODELS NOW INDICATE
CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
OAHU AND KAUAI BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDDED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, AND THE ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAK FRONT COULD INCREASE SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISLANDS.
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT COULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WELL AS
BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 928 AM HST WED JAN 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LAND/SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. SOME
LOW CIGS AND SHRA POSSIBLE ALONG INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SPOTS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM HST WED JAN 28 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH TO A LOCATION OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND BREEZES PRESENT ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND BRUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES
OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
WIND REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS THEN
POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE FIZZING
OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
KAUAI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN DECAYING AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE, NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE OLD FRONT OR ITS REMNANT
MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A
LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A LAND AND
SEABREEZE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SOME INTERIOR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THAT WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
CURRENTLY, NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS. THE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WATERS AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE KAUAI AND OAHU WATERS. WHILE MOST
COASTAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES, TERRAIN-INDUCED ACCELERATIONS WILL LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WHERE THE FLOW PARALLELS
TO THE COAST, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY,
THEN GRADUALLY LOWER BY THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS
TO THE NORTHWEST ALREADY SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND, WHICH SHOULD BE
REFLECTED AT THE NEARSHORE BUOYS LATER TODAY AS THE SWELL EASES.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND FROM A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW THAT
HAS EVOLVED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LATEST ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS SYSTEM POSITIONED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WITH A
CAPTURED FETCH FOCUSED AT THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE 290 TO 315 DEGREE
DIRECTIONAL BANDS. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN THURSDAY AND WILL BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK
CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HEIGHTS
WILL EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS BY THURSDAY, THEN WARNING LEVELS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WATER REACHING AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY ALONG EXPOSED COASTS, INCLUDING VULNERABLE
LOW-LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD WILL
ESPECIALLY INCREASE IF THE PEAK SURF COINCIDES WITH THE OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN UP TODAY BEFORE EASING
THURSDAY AS A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES
THROUGH.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI
SOUTHWEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
UPDATE...THOMAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA/WALSH
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...GIBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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