847
FXHW60 PHFO 290157
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 PM HST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED INTERIOR SHOWERS, THEN WEAKENING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL PRESS
DOWN THE THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ANOTHER FRONT,
LIKELY STRONGER, COULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WELL
AS BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MOSTLY HANGING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND INTERIOR REGIONS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN, BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, SEA
BREEZES WILL WANE AND SKIES OVER LAND SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR.
THURSDAY, SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED WHICH WILL PRESENT
NEARLY A RUBBER STAMP TO THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED TODAY. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI, AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT FIRST ACROSS
KAUAI THURSDAY NIGHT, OAHU DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND FINALLY
STALLING AND WASHING OUT NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN,
FLOODING CONCERNS, OR WINTER WEATHER ON THE SUMMITS. IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY AS TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH OF HAWAII.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BEGIN
TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD AND THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS ITS APPROACH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON
MONDAY, AND COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SLIDING
THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS INDICATES A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GENERATES A ROBUST LINE OF PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH STRONGER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
POST FRONTAL WINDS. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND GENERATES A LESS IMPRESSIVE RAIN BAND
WITH WEAKER WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LAND/SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. SOME
LOW CIGS AND SHRA POSSIBLE ALONG INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SPOTS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS. THE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WATERS AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE KAUAI AND OAHU WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE STATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW
THAT EVOLVED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH A CAPTURED FETCH FOCUSED AT THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE 290
TO 315 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL BANDS. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE A LONG DURATION
EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS BY THURSDAY, THEN
WARNING LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN
DECLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN LARGER, EXTRA LARGE SWELL
ARRIVES IN THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WATER REACHING AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY REMAIN DRY ALONG EXPOSED COASTS, INCLUDING VULNERABLE
LOW-LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD WILL
ESPECIALLY INCREASE IF THE PEAK SURF COINCIDES WITH THE OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY EASE THURSDAY AS A
SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL GRADUALLY DECLINES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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