407
FXHW60 PHFO 290631
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
831 PM HST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND AND SEA
BREEZES IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT
AND THE ISLAND INTERIORS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS KAUAI,
WITH THE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE
DISTANT NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH TO A LOCATION OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LAND BREEZES PRESENT OR DEVELOPING
IN MOST AREAS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DAYTIME HEATING
DRIVEN CLOUD COVER DECAYING, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLANDS, WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAIN GAUGES ALSO HAVE RECORDED NO RAINFALL OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, WHILE A FEW GAUGES ON THE
BIG ISLAND HAVE MEASURED 0.01 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND AN INCOMING FRONT LATE
THURSDAY AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES PRESENT IN
MOST AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND LIGHT, WITH
MOST SHOWERS REMAINING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN WHAT
WAS SEEN TODAY OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS, BUT ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO KAUAI THROUGH KAUAI AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, THEN
DECAYING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OAHU AND INTO MAUI
COUNTY ON FRIDAY, BEFORE STALLING OUT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN
THE VICINITY OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH
THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT APPEARS
STRONGER, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO LAND AND SEA
BREEZES PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND INTERIOR CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZES DURING
THE DAY AND LAND BREEZES EACH NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
TRENDS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES EACH ISLAND. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TO HAWAIIAN WATERS BY SUNDAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES.
TWO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREE) SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ORIGINATING FROM A
BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW THAT EVOLVED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN ON THURSDAY, AN OVERLAPPING STRONGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A LONG
DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THE SWELL WILL SWIFTLY EXCEED WARNING
LEVELS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN DECLINES
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN LARGER, EXTRA LARGE SWELL ARRIVES
IN THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARNING-LEVEL SURF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR WATER INUNDATION OVER
VULNERABLE LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS LIKELIHOOD
WILL ESPECIALLY INCREASE IF THE PEAK SURF COINCIDES WITH THE
OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO THE LACK
OF TRADES LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THURSDAY AS
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL GRADUALLY DECLINES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...BOHLIN
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